Predictions: 2014 Pan Ams - Black Belts
The 2014 IBJJF Pan-American championship is right around the corner, starting on March 12th the event will go on until Sunday March 16th at the famed Pyramid in Long Beach, California. All four days of the event will be broadcasted live on www.ibjjftv.com, make sure you tune in if you want to watch your friends or instructor compete from the comfort of your home!
So let's get down to business, here are my personal predictions for the male adult Black belt divisions.
Roosterweight/Galo
As is the case with most divisions at this years event, the top guys of the weight class did not register to compete and of course I'm talking about Bruno Malfacine, Caio Terra and Felipe Costa who have been at the top of the Roosterweight division for the past 7 years.
Finalists
Fabbio Passos - Alliance
The veteran from Alliance is always a threat in the Galo division. Having conquered important tournaments such as the American Nationals and the Master/Senior Worlds and also medaling numerous times at the Pan-Ams, Worlds, and No-gi Worlds, Passos has what it takes to win the gold this year now that Caio Terra won't be in his way.
Ivaniel Cavalcante - CheckMat
The CheckMat representative has been tearing it up in the Brazilian circuit by winning the most prestigious tournament in the country numerous times at the black belt level, The Brasilieros/Brazilian Nationals. The highly talented Cavalcante also had an impressive showing at the 2013 Worlds, Cavalcante took the Bronze medal after having battled the champion, Caio Terra and coming up short in the final seconds of the match. Cavalcante is my personal pick for the gold this year.
Guy to watch:
Koji Shibamoto is the darkhorse of the division. The Japanese standout and former brown belt world champion hasn't been able to find the success he's been looking for at the black belt level but he is highly game as shown in his battle with Caio Terra at this years Europeans. Shibamoto is definitely a guy to watch if he can get over the aforementioned Passos who will be his 2nd match if he finds success in the opening battle.
**Predicition: Cavalcante wins Gold.**
Light Feather/Pluma
As is the story with this years event, the Light Featherweight division is unusually thin this year as the heavy hitters Gui Mendes, Ary Farias, Laercio Fernandes, and Gabriel Moraes* are not competing in the weight class this year.
*Moraes will be in the Master division.
Finalists
Miyao brothers closeout - Cicero Costha
With only 7 competitors registered and both the Miyao bros in the same division this is a no brainer. Without a real threat the brothers from the northern Brazilian city of Andirá, Paraná should have no trouble closing it out.
Guy to watch:
Rafael Freitas- Better known as Barata, the Gracie Barra veteran will be João's second match. Known for his modified Omoplata that has been nicknamed the "Baratoplata" he's always a dangerous opponent with his crafty style of jiu-jitsu. Barata has of late been focusing on his MMA career which led him to an appearance on the UFC's Ultimate Fighter but in my opinion has hindered his performance in the kimono as he has not been as successful as he once was. Keep an eye out for the Miyao-Freitas matchup, it will be interesting.
**Predicition: Miyao closeout.**
Featherweight/Pena
One of the more rather populated weight classes of the event the Featherweight is one to keep an eye out for. While Rafa Mendes, Cobrinha, and Tanquinho Mendes are not registered to compete it gives a chance to see a lot of young guys move up in the podium.
Finalists
Mario Reis - Alliance
World Champion in 2003 and 2004, Reis is the only man to have medaled at EVERY single World championship since then. Reis is one of the more intense and aggressive competitors in the sport. Always on the offensive if Reis can keep it together he has a big shot at the gold that has been evading him for so many years. As of late Rafa Mendes as been a roadblock for the Gaucho (person born in Southern Brazil) with the ATOS superstar out of the way, Reis is poised for the finals.
Justin Rader - Team Lovato/Ribeiro JJ
I was surprised to see Justin Raders name on the list! Mainly a no-gi competitor, Rader has been very impressive in his last showings at the ADCC and No-Gi Worlds. Rader defeated 2013 World champion Tanquinho and the aforementioned João Miyao at the ADCC in Beijing, China. 3 weeks later the young American from Oklahoma won the No-Gi worlds by defeating notables Samir Chantre and Osvaldo Quexinho in for his 2nd no-gi world title. It will be interesting to see him compete in the kimono as it has been some years but with Rader's aggressive style and pressure passing game I believe he can take it to the finals and will be a tossup between him and Mario Reis.
Guy to watch:
Gianni Grippo - The 21 year old recently promoted black belt from Alliance/Marcelo Garcia has been very busy competing since receiving the belt from Marcelinho earlier this year. Grippo will bring his style of modern jiu-jitsu which include his favored techniques like the Berimbolo and De la Riva guard to the table. Grippo has been impressive since the promotion having only lost close matches to Rafael Mendes, Osvaldo Quexinho and the much heavier Otavio Sousa.
**Predicition: Rader wins Gold.**
Lightweight/Leve
Arguably the most stacked division of the event, this weight class promises to deliver fireworks! With notables JT Torres, Michael Langhi, Lucas Lepri, AJ Agazarm, and Sinistro Itturalde registered to compete this should be a fun one.
Finalists
Michael Langhi - Alliance
The man with the ''Unpassable guard'' is one of the best competitors in the world today. With an amazing open guard game the 2x World champion and last years Pan champion has only tasted defeated against 3 men in the past 3 1/2 years (Leandro Lo, Kron Gracie, and Roberto Satoshi) It's interesting that him and teammate Lucas Lepri are in the same side of the bracket as they usually meet and close out the finals an example being last year's Pans. Unless he decides to let Lepri continue on then Langhi is a sure ticket to the finals.
JT Torres - ATOS
JT Torres has been on fire as of late. With an impressive performance at the ADCC and No-Gi worlds which saw him defeat notable Lucas Lepri, Torres is coming off his first Mundial title and doesn't seem to look back. The move to ATOS as definitely paid off as his competition game has been on a different level. His toughest match on his side of the bracket will be the winner of Sinistro/Rafael Freitas. Torres succumbed to Freitas's pressure heavy game in a match lost by an advantage at the 2013 Pans but then defeated Freitas later in the year.
Guy to watch for:
Lucas Lepri - Like I said earlier it was odd to see Lepri and Langhi on the same side of the bracket. If 2007 World champion Lepri can get past AJ Agazarm (if AJ wins his 1st match) then we will see if he let's Langhi go on or if Langhi lets Lepri go on. If the case that Lepri moves on the he will for sure be a contender for the Gold.
**Predicition: Langhi wins Gold.**
Middleweight/Meio
Again one of the most packed divisions of the event. With 23 competitors registered the Middleweight division is one that I'm personally excited for. Division kingpin Otavio Sousa, Clark Gracie, Marcelo Mafra, Lucas Rocha, Leandro Lo and Vitor Henrique are all registered to compete.
Finalists
Leandro Lo - Cicero Costha
Leandro Lo is simply amazing. His jiu-jitsu is top notch and he is by far the best competitor in the lighter weight classes, he even has success in the absolutes. The 2x World champion has been on a tear and has defeated notables Michael Langhi, Lucas Lepri, Claudio Calasans, Joao Gabriel, Otavio Sousa, Felipe Preguiça and Orlando Sanchez. This will be his Middleweight debut in a major tournament. Lo had a disappointing campaign at last year's Pans losing early to Vitor Henrique and in the absolute to Orlando Sanchez but has since rebounded impressively and has only lost to the much heavier Rodolfo Vieira. If he can overcome Otavio Sousa and Vitor Henrique on his side of the bracket then he should be a definite contender for the top spot.
Victor Estima - Gracie Barra
Brother to the legendary Braulio Estima, Victor Estima is equally as talented. Having medaled at all the major tournaments including the ADCC, Victor is poised at a run for the gold. Estima is coming off undoubtedly one his biggest accolade, winning the 2013 IBJJF Pro-League and doing so in fanatic fashion by finishing the durable Vitor Henrique with the Estima trademark Inverted triangle. With notables Clark Gracie and recently promoted Victor Silverio on his side of the bracket, Victor has his work cut out for him. Expect Estima to make it to the finals and battle the accomplished Leandro Lo.
Guy to watch for:
Otavio Sousa - The 2x defending World champion is on the toughest side of the bracket and if he wins his first 2 matches will meet Lo in the 3rd. I expect it to be a war as was their last match at Copa Podio (which Lo won with a last second sweep) If Sousa wins then their will be a high possibility that the middleweight division will be a closeout for Gracie Barra.
**Predicition: Leandro Lo wins gold.**
Middle Heavy/Meio Pesado
Another stacked division from bottom to top! Not a lot of big names but definitely a bunch of skilled players in this bracket. Some notables are Keenan Cornelius, Guto Campos Felipe Preguiça, Murilo Santana, Eduardo Telles, Rodrigo "Pimpolho" Fajardo, Renato Cardoso, and Vitor Toledo.
Finalists
Guto Campos - ATOS
With the divisions reigning champion Romulo Barral not in the mix, Guto Campos has a tangible ticket to the finals. If Campos can defeat DJ Jackson, Eduardo Telles, and or Rodrigo Pimpolho then he should be where he was last year, In a position to close out the division for team ATOS.
Keenan Cornelius - ATOS
The talented young black belt Keenan Cornelius, is one of the favorites coming into this years Pans. Currently undefeated as a Black belt in the kimono, Keenan has all the momentum in the world heading into the weekend. The Purple belt Grand-Slammer and almost repeated the same at Brown belt is in a tough bracket with young studs such as Felipe Preguica, and Renato Cardoso. Keenan has what it takes to move on into the finals with teammate and sparring partner Guto Campos.
Guy to watch:
Felipe "Preguica" Pena - The Copa Podio champion and pupil of Romulo Barral and Vinicius Draculino has been on a roll in Brazil with the Copa Podio organization. Beating the likes of Guto Campos, Travis Stevens and 2014 European champion Renato Cardoso who Pena will have to fight in his 2nd match. If Felipe can get past the dangerous Cardoso then that will set up a long awaited duel with Keenan Cornelius, who the latter has been eager to fight since Brown belt.
**Predicition: ATOS closeout, Keenan takes gold.**
Heavyweight/Pesado
A relatively thin division with the absence of division king Rodolfo Vieira and Xande Ribeiro. Although only 14 competitors registered the division has some interesting matches and big names such as Rafael Lovato, Lucas Leite, Jackson Sousa, and defending champion Roberto "Tussa" Alencar.
Finalists
Jackson Sousa - CheckMat
Rising star Jackson Sousa better known as Jack has been very impressive since receiving his black belt last year from the hands of CheckMat leader Ricardo Vieira. With notable victories over veterans Roberto "Tussa" and Yuri Simoes and wins at the black belt level of prestigious tournaments such as the No-Gi worlds and Europeans. Sousa is a personal favorite to seal the deal, he will have to get past Simoes and Rafael Lovato, Jr which won't be an easy task. Sousa was unknown to American jiu-jitsu fans due to his VISA problems which made it virtually impossible for Jack to compete in the USA at the major tournaments. Since attaining the VISA, Jack has frequented the States competing in every major championship and with success. The 2013 Brown belt world champion has a bright future in the sport.
Lucas Leite - CheckMat
There's nobody on Lucas Leite's side of the bracket that I see defeating him. The biggest threat for the CheckMat representative is defending champion Roberto Tussa who Leite defeated 16-0 at the 2013 World championship. Leite oddly enough is a middleweight by nature but likes to compete in the heavyweight division. The 2013 World finalist had an impressive campaign defeating Xande Ribeiro and Roberto Tussa Alencar before succumbing to the pressure of Rodolfo Vieira. The one thing that Leite has over most heavyweights is speed, Leite is an expert at taking the back from deep half guard and has a very high chance of meeting up in the finals with teammate Jack Sousa and closing it out for Team CheckMat like they did so at the 2013 No-Gi Worlds.
Guy to watch:
Roberto "Tussa" Alencar - The defending Pan-American champion from Gracie Barra is a guy nobody ever pays much attention to on the brackets but is definitely a game opponent. Tussa has won the Pan Am tournament twice (2013, 2009) and also the No-gi world championship 4 times.
**Predicition: CheckMat closeout, Leite takes gold.**
Super Heavyweight/Super Pesado
With only 12 competitors registered to compete the Super Heavyweight division is one of the shallowest divisions of the event. This will mark the return of defending champion Bernardo Faria who has been out of competition since the 2013 Worlds due to a knee injury. Notables names not registered are Joao Gabriel Rocha and Leo Nogueira who are two of the best in the division. James Puopolo and Luiz Panza are two guys to keep an eye out for.
Finalists
Bernardo Faria - Alliance
If you don't know who Alliance's Bernardo Faria is then just watch for the guy who screams in celebration after every victory, lol. Bernardo Faria without a doubt is the favorite to win this division and maybe the absolute. Faria, who now teaches at Alliance/Marcelo Garcia in New York City is one of the best black belts in the world. A three time world champion, Faria is as aggressive as one can get on the mat without being DQ'ed. Always on the hunt for the kill, Faria should have no problem securing the gold. Let's just hope his knee holds up!
Luiz Panza - Barbosa JJ
One of the most talented prospects coming out of Brazil is 22 year old Paulista, Luiz Panza from Team Barbosa. Panza is a former Model.. yes model. In 2007 Panza decided to trade in the Camera for the Kimono and has never looked back. A bronze medalist at last year's Pans, In 2013 Panza won the No-gi Pan American championship and the No-gi Brazilian National championship winning double gold at the black belt level in both tournaments. Panza's biggest threat on his bracket will be Team Lovato standout James Puopolo.
Guy to watch for:
James Puopolo- Rafael Lovato, Jr's prodigy, James Puopolo has been impressive in the last couple of months. Puopolo won the 2013 No-gi World championship and in February he took double gold at the IBJJF Houston Open. Puopolo and Panza should be a great match if Puopolo wins his first match which will be against Thiago Delevaco-Salim.
**Predicition: Bernardo Faria wins gold and screams just a little.**
Ultra-Heavy/Ultra Pesado
As is unfortunately the story of this years Pan-Ams none of the big names from the division are signed up to compete. Buchecha, Cavaca, and Cyborg Abreu will not be fighting this year. Oddly enough Caio Terra the Roosterweight kingpin signed up to compete in the heaviest division of the tournament but Terra has just announced that he got sick and will not be able to compete. Andre Galvao also signed up for this division.
Finalists
Alexander Trans - CheckMat
Alexander Trans of Team CheckMat is one of the best heavyweight competitors in the world. With a mountain of accolades in the lower belt levels, Trans has been finding success at the black belt level but always seems to come up short against the best competitor in the world today, Marcus Buchecha. With Buchecha not competing this year, Trans has a guaranteed ticket to the finals. Trans is coming off his double gold performance at the European championship being the first European to win an absolute title there. Trans is coming into California with huge momentum and I can't wait to see him perform next weekend.
André Galvão - ATOS
An absolute legend in the sport of jiu-jitsu. If you know Jiu-jitsu you know Andre Galvao. Galvao has won every single tournament there is to win in this sport and next weekend he'll be looking for one more to add to the list. Fighting outside of his usual weight class, Galvao will have no problem getting to the finals. Galvao does very well in the absolute and at last year's Pans had a great battle with Marcus Buchecha in the finals of the absolute division. Andre has to defeat some big big men but that will not be a problem for him as he has done so in the past with relative ease.
Guy to watch:
Abraham Marte-Messina - Abraham Marte was a relatively unknown guy but that all changed at the 2013 World Championship. Marte put on an absolutely incredible performance at the Worlds in only his first year as a black belt, Marte took Bronze after he was DQ'ed for walking out of bounds while in a triangle choke applied by Rodrigo Cavaca. The Dominican native from Team Yamasaki will fight Andre Galvao in his first match. Galvao defeated Marte at last year's Worlds by kneebar but Marte was up by an advantage up until the submission.
**Predicition: Galvao beats Trans for the Gold.**
Well there it is! My personal predictions for the 2014 IBJJF Pan American Championships.
Please, give me some feedback and let me know what you think about the upcoming Pan-Ams!
Yadriel Rios on Instagram
@MAGRINHOGB
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